Butiki Bullets: the PBA Finals

• Tell you one thing, this has been an exciting PBA season - and I'm not even referring to basketball being played on court. Players refusing to sign with teams, brawls with fans, walkouts and now, a controversial call that hands Purefoods two free throws to win the game in the dying seconds of Game 2. Norman Black, as commentator, was ripping on the refs on the air. And this says a lot because I'm sure PBA announcers are instructed to not say anything bad about the referees if possible. Tim Cone and Joaqui Trillo charged straight at the PBA technical committee. I don't know if Alaska has plans of putting the game under protest, but it certainly seemed that way judging from the reactions of their top guys.

• Oh, and apparently, 2 referees from last night's game were also officiating the controversial TNT-Ginebra walkout. Coincidence? Probably, but it is interesting to note.

• This Finals matchup reminds me a lot of the 2008 Boston Celtics-LA Lakers NBA Finals. Alaska, because of the triangle offense, will have those natural comparisons to the Phil Jackson-led Lakers. Purefoods, meanwhile, are playing physical and more importantly, mentally tough. The Aces are looking soft in this series and like the Lakers then, easily frustrated. When things come together, they can make big runs on the Giants, but Purefoods is very capable of grinding the game and wearing them down. Willie Miller is obviously Kobe Bryant in this analogy, and Kevin Garnett is Kerby Raymundo on offense and Rafi Reavis on defense. James Yap, meanwhile, is playing like a crazy Paul Pierce-Ray Allen hybrid. Joe Devance, I think, is Lamar Odom. He's very talented and if he plays well enough, he'll give the Aces a chance. But man, does he look overmatched by the Purefoods frontline at times. On a side note, the Celtics won that series so that doesn't bode too well for Alaska.

• Everything aside, though, I think this is an awesome series. Purefoods and Alaska have practically identical point differentials, pace-adjusted (at +5 over their opponents), which means the teams are pretty much evenly matched. Plenty of close games are expected, and judging by the first two - it has delivered so far. Oh, and for more pace-adjusted stuff, check out this Fire Quinito post of Game 1 of the series.

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Support Nate Robinson: Liveblogging the NBA Slam Dunk Contest

• 3-time champ. That's the record. Good on you, Nate. And on that note, that's it for the dunk contest.
  

• Gotta agree with the announcers. Taurian Fontenette's 720 dunk would have won this hands down. Next year, bring the non-NBAers to the contest. They do some real crazy things.
  

• Nate wins with 51% of the fan vote.
  

• Waiting for the text results. Love Nate Rob, but I'm kind of leaning toward the rook here. No one really bringing the A-game tonight.
  

• Sweet dunk by DeRozan. Off the backboard alley-oop and jumping over the passer. Things starting to come alive.
  

• Contest sorely lacking the theatrics of Superman.
  

• LeBron and Dwight would've made the finals easy.
  

• Not a bad dunk by Nate. This contest pales in comparison to the past ones, though. It's Nate and DeMar in the finals.
  

• All 10s for DeRozan? You mean it can't get any better than that?
  

• Kobe with an assist for Shannon Brown. Dunk nothing special, though.
  

• Bad first round. Plenty of missed dunks. But Nate leads everyone with a 44.

• Nate shooting for a 3rd championship today.
  

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Breaking Down Ginebra TNT Game 4

The antagonists of the now-infamous walkout game have dragged statistics into the conversation, and that makes me happy because, well, we at Patay Ang Butiki love us some statistics. Now, TNT coach Chot Reyes started this all off by stating the free throw disparity between the teams during Game 4, which was 14-5 in favor of Ginebra. And while I agree with Jaemark of Fire Quinito that free throw disparity doesn’t really tell us much, it’s a good starting point for discussion.

I find it interesting that Ginebra governor Robert Non said that Reyes was “only quoting the statistics that he wants to serve his and his team’s ends” when his own head coach in an attempt to respond to TNT’s allegations, does exactly the same thing. Jong Uichico cites that “Talk ’N Text is No.3 as the most fouling team with 27.17 per game while Barangay Ginebra is the least fouling team at 25.67 per game.”

But just as a disclaimer before everything else, we aren’t out to prove or disprove anything. Biased refereeing is very difficult to prove and as such, we aren’t even going to attempt it. What we will do is present some of the relevant statistics, explain what we can, and point out anything that looks out of place. It won’t prove anything, but it helps in understanding the context of things.

Look, a lot of the numbers being thrown around really doesn’t mean much. Take Uichico’s numbers, for one. He cites rankings – TNT at no. 3 and Ginebra at dead last – when it comes to fouls per game. But look at the quantities. There’s a difference of just less than two fouls per game between TNT and Ginebra. That’s not a very convincing difference. At best, you can say that Ginebra is expected to foul slightly less than TNT if they play in a series. But TNT isn’t complaining about being screwed over slightly. In Reyes’ mind, there’s a rather large disparity.

There are two things I wanted to find out from the numbers. First, was there a large difference in the TNT numbers and Ginebra numbers? And second, how did the quarterfinal series numbers compare to the regular season numbers and especially in games between TNT and Ginebra? That probably tells more about how games were called than looking at TNT and Ginebra’s games against the other PBA teams.

Also, you have to know that I prefer using advanced statistics than the regular ones. Important terms you have to know:

FP100: Fouls Per 100 Possessions. Basically just fouls per game adjusted for pace.
FTR: Free Throw Rate. This is what is used in the Four Factors, which measures a team’s ability to get to the free throw line. It’s basically FTA divided by FGA since it assumes one needs to take a shot to get free throws. And that’s what makes the penalty situation so valuable, it gives you points out of nothing.

Let’s get to the numbers.

I took my statistics from PBFantasy.com, so it may differ slightly from the figures Uichico cites, but they’re pretty damn close.

REGULAR SEASON
Ginebra:
27.11 FP100; 27.98 FP100 (Opp)
36.3% FTR; 34.2% FTR (Opp)

TNT
27.76 FP100; 25.09 FP100 (Opp)
33.0% FTR; 37.1% FTR (Opp)

So what do these numbers say? Basically, what Uichico was trying to point out. Ginebra is slightly above average at drawing fouls and getting to the line. And TNT is below average at that. But how far away are they from each other?

Now, assuming this is how TNT is called for almost 3 fouls more than the average team, and allows opponents to get to the line about 4 percentage points more, how would they perform against a slightly above average team like Ginebra? From a quick glance at the numbers, one would expect TNT to be called for about 4 or 5 more fouls against Ginebra, and maybe down 8 or 9 percentage points in FTR. And the regular season numbers seem to support that.

REGULAR SEASON (Ginebra vs TNT head-to-head; 2 games)
Ginebra
23.93 FP100
38.8% FTR

TNT
29.14 FP100
27.9% FTR

So yes. From the numbers, one would expect Ginebra to fare better than TNT when it comes to the fouls and free throw metrics, advanced or otherwise. And Ginebra did indeed prove to have the advantage in the regular season matchups. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

Now let’s check out the numbers from the games in the quarterfinal series that led to the walkout.

QUARTERFINALS (Games 1-3; 3 games)
Ginebra
26.89 FP100
54.0% FTR

TNT
36.64 FP100
30.1% FTR

So obviously, a lot more fouls being called here when compared to either the regular season schedule against all other 9 teams, or to the head-to-head games between TNT and Ginebra. Both teams were called for more fouls but TNT’s fouls get bumped up by 9 more fouls from their season norms, while Ginebra actually fouls less. When compared to the head-to-heads, which is a better comparison, Ginebra’s FP100 goes up by about 3 fouls while TNT’s go up by 6.

That’s a small red flag there. Just a teeny tiny one. But the problem is, those extra fouls in the game probably mean the difference between having fouls to give and penalty. And that shows up on the FTR.

Ginebra’s FTR goes up by a whopping 16 percentage points, while TNT’s goes up by about 3. Now that’s a bigger red flag right there. Something definitely out of the ordinary happened in the series.

Now I said in a previous post that I was already bugging about Game 3 – the way it was so easy for Ginebra to get to the line. So let’s look at Game 3 as well.

GAME 3 (1 game)
Ginebra
31.0 FP100
61.1% FTR

TNT
42.4 FP100
26.6% FTR

So for whatever reason, Game 3 was even more lopsided than the already lopsided quarterfinal series. Now let’s take a look at Game 4, which was the game TNT walked out on.

GAME 4 (1 game)
Ginebra
12.2 FP100
87.5% FTR

TNT
40.7 FP100
20.8% FTR

Wow. That 87.5% is insane. And the fact that Ginebra was on pace for just 12 fouls for 100 possessions when they averaged 27 in the eliminations? So it’s pretty safe to say that Ginebra got to the line A LOT, and was called for an incredibly small amount of fouls. You can’t say the refs were calling it tight on this one or there is no way one team would be on pace for 12 FP100. That’s half of Ginebra’s normal averages.

Now all these come with usual caveats about sample size, etc. Very likely, if TNT does not get into penalty in the next quarter, then that 87.5% of Ginebra will take a dip. But then, it doesn’t change the fact that these numbers are so far off from anything one can project.

But like I said, I’m not out to prove referee bias or anything like that. Stats can’t do that, sadly. But I can go over the numbers and point out things that look out of place.

And the walkout? Happened in an out-of-the-ordinary first quarter, preceded by an out-of-the-ordinary game, in an out-of-the-ordinary series. That much, we can see.

Now, someone has to look at it play-by-play if there’s bias to be proven. The stats can tell us there are red flags all over the place, but not why. They can be caused by a change in TNT strategy (that leads to more fouls), or Ginebra personnel (the return of Mark Caguioa and Jayjay Helterbrand from injury), or it could be referee bias. It could be anything.

And like I said, I don’t Iike that TNT walked out of the game. It’s disrespectful to the sport and to the fans, on some level. But if you have to understand why they felt they were handed the short end of the stick – well, here it is. The Game 4 disparity was worse than Game 3, which was worse than the rest of the series, which was worse than the past head-to-heads, which was worse than the regular series.

The two things I wanted to find out? Yes, there was, and rightfully should be, a difference between Ginebra’s and TNT’s numbers. They’re better at drawing fouls, period. But was there a difference with how the regular season and head-to-head matchups went as compared to the quarters? Yes, and I fully understand how that can frustrate TNT. Even as they won Games 1 and 2, they must have felt this was nothing like the past games they’ve had with Ginebra.

And like I said, you gotta feel for them.

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Talk N Text walk out mars quarterfinal with Ginebra

Talk N Text walked out on their Game 4 matchup against Ginebra, and forfeiting the game in the process. Now, I'm not a fan of walk-outs. In fact, I will almost always side with the team that stayed on court. But I have to say, I can't blame Chot Reyes and company for taking a stand on this one.

This wasn't a game TNT could win on the basketball court. And if they had played on and put the game under protest instead, people would ask why they stayed on if they thought they being cheated. Look, Ginebra draws a lot of fouls. I understand that. But even with that in mind, you can't help watch Game 3 and think, man, Ginebra's drawing A LOT of fouls. And a 14-5 advantage in free throw attempts in Game 4? It wasn't the bogus Ranidel de Ocampo Flagrant-2 that caused the walkout. No, that was just the tipping point. It's these fouls, the sheer volume of them.

It's kind of like that 2nd round meeting between San Beda and Letran in the 2009 NCAA tournament. Everybody knew Letran was a team that thrives on physicality. Knowing that, the referees still decided to call the game extremely tight which obviously put the Knights at an extreme disadvantage. Predictably, Letran lost a lot of guys to foul trouble early in the game, AND were forced to play a meek brand of defense the rest of the way.

Why call a game in a manner that so obviously skews it in favor of one team over the other? Ginebra gets a lot of calls with their aggressive play, yes. But why make it even easier for them to get to the line by being so quick with the whistle? Why rob the PBA fans of a well-played basketball game that Ginebra could very well win even without the rules playing in their favor? I know refs get the freedom to choose how they call a game, but sometimes you just need to let the players decide the outcome.

I won't comment on the referee's agenda. Those things are impossible to prove, anyway. But the Commissioner's Office will have plenty to think about before Sunday. My opinion is that Sonny Barrios got it wrong when he awarded the San Miguel-TNT-wrong-uniform game to the Tropang Texters when they should have forfeited there.

Now, it's either a replay of the game or a forfeit win for Ginebra. That's all up to Barrios now. Either way, these two teams are playing again on Sunday. Here's to hoping the referees let them, this time around.

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Butiki Bullets: Smart Gilas invited back to Dubai

• Smart Gilas, fresh off their impressive performance in Dubai, has just been invited back by the organizers for a four-team invitational. Joel Orellana of the Business Mirror reports that Smart Gilas has been asked to participate in the Al Ahli Cup from March 23-28. There may be a conflict in schedule because Gilas is expected to be in Australia for some tuneup games this March, but I think it's worth a visit just to get another crack at CJ Giles and his Al Riyadi team.

• More on Smart Gilas. Kelly Williams on the national team is beginning to look more like a possibility, although the SBP top brass have yet to make a formal request to the PBA. And a prospect for naturalization is in town to try out for Smart Gilas. Darian Townes who, according to Basketball-Reference.com, played 31 games for the Erie BayHawks in the NBA D-League, had a tryout last night.

• The Philippine Patriots are the first team in ABL history to make it into the Finals. Considering they scored the first basket (Rob Wainwright), the first victory, and the #1 seeding in the first regular season, the Pats really are amassing quite a haul in the very young record books of the league. Let's hope first championship is also in the offing for the squad.

• Purefoods sat out vets Kerby Raymundo, Peter June Simon and rookie Rico Maierhofer in their 95-93 loss to Rain or Shine Wednesday. Think Ryan Gregorio would like to take that one back? Look, I know they're hurting, but you usually rest players after winning a series, not one game. Yes, they were up 2-0 and could afford to lose one or two games. But now, it's 2-1, and one bad game could send you to a virtual Game 7 (do-or-die Game 5 doesn't quite have the ring of a Game 7) where every basketball fan knows, anything can happen. In game 3, Sol Mercado had a bad game, and if you play Kerby and Rico in stretches, maybe you pull through with a win. They could be resting now while Ginebra and Talk N Text dispute their series. Instead, they play a more confident Rain or Shine team that knows they can beat Purefoods.

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Ginebra has a new weapon

Brgy Ginebra, when they have their full complement of players, is dangerous. This team is just loaded. Actually, even without the full house, Ginebra is pretty good. Ronald Tubid, Cyrus Baguio and Eric Menk have held the fort admirably this year while backcourt stars Mark Caguioa and Jayjay Helterbrand struggle with injuries. The Fast and the Furious have combined to miss 31 games this conference, and yet the Kings are a top-4 team in the PBA.

And that only makes the development of JC Intal – ‘the Rocket’ – even scarier.

Intal has always been a prospect. Very few players have that combination of skill and athleticism that he has for his size. At 6’4”, he can almost pass for a big man in the PBA (barely), but with the quickness of a guard. And the hops. Ah, the hops. Intal is a perennial favorite at whatever slam dunk contest he chooses to enter. That’s how he got his monicker in the first place. He makes dunking the ball look like the easiest thing in the world to do.

Intal has always been a bundle of potential. There were rumors in the past that San Miguel Beer had wanted to acquire Intal as a long-term replacement for the aging and oft-injured Danny Seigle. The opinion of many is that once JC develops a reliable three-point shot, he can be close to impossible to guard. Intal’s shown flashes of brilliance through the years, but never quite put it together.

Not until now, at least. Granted, he had that sweat gland disorder that kept him off the floor for a long stretch in his development years. But man, does he look good now.

He’s scored 10 points or more in 16 of the team’s 22 games, including the last nine. In fact, since Ginebra’s December 25 win over Coca-cola, Intal has been averaging 20.7 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists over a 7-game stretch. He averaged only 5.3 points and 3.1 rebounds last conference. In their quarterfinal series against TNT, he’s upped his scoring to 22.3 points per game, to go along with 7.0 boards and 1.3 assists. He’s getting good balance on his shot attempts, too. He’s made 9 three-pointers in three games against TNT, and averaging an impressive 9.5 free throw attempts per game. They’ve needed his output badly, with Tubid shooting .288 eFG% and .365 TS% for the series.

He was it again last night. Eric Menk is going to get the attention for his 20-point performance (only the second time this conference he’s reached 20) and the game-clinching free throws he made. But Intal’s 25 points (.531 eFG%; .667 TS%) and 10 rebounds were big in their first win of the series.

Caguioa and Heltebrand played limited but quality minutes last night. Down 0-2 in the series, that may have been their last chance to play this conference. Now, they’re down 1-2, still with their backs to the wall, still facing elimination, still needing to win two-in-a-row to advance. It’s tough, but if JC Intal keeps his play up, Ginebra might just stand a chance.

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Butiki Bullets: Kelly Williams on Smart Gilas?

• Smart Gilas head coach Rajko Toroman may have expressed interest in Sta Lucia forward Kelly Williams, but Philippine basketball fans better not get their hopes up. At least not yet, seeing as PBA officials have remained lukewarm on the subject. Sta Lucia governor Buddy Encarnado seems open to the idea, but maintains the need for "balance between the team and being patriotic." PBA chairman Lito Alvarez thinks Smart Gilas has no need for a PBA reinforcement. PBA commissioner, Sonny Barrios, meanwhile, is concerned that "their players have already sacrificed a lot tapos kung kukuha pa sila sa amin, baka sumama pa loob nila."

• A Smart Gilas insider recently lent his two bits on Fire Quinito. On Chris Tiu's defense: "It would seem that it is his fault when the guards score but truth is, he does everything coach Raijko asks him to on defense. He follows their defensive philosophy to the letter and often enough it is due to his teammates' mistakes in following their help side rules on defense that lead his man to score."

• And for those keeping tabs, Chris Lutz statistics. Most of his numbers are down from last season, but the ones that probably matter to Gilas the most - FG%, FT% and especially 3p% - are all slightly higher this year. Interesting to note, though, that his FG% is inversely proportional to the number of points he scores.

• In the off-chance that these naturalization problems continue, is it too much to hope for Japeth Aguilar and Greg Slaughter to develop into a legitimate frontline combo? They seem like such a good fit, at least defensively. Slaughter's size is a perfect match for the high-flying help defense of Aguilar, if they can only figure out how to use their talents properly. They have an 80-game schedule before competing in the 16th Asian Games in November and a couple more months after that before the 2011 FIBA Asia Championships. Is it wishful thinking to hope that, in a year's time, those two blue-chips are playing better than the gutsy but undersized Jason Ballesteros for Smart Gilas?

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