Breaking Down Ginebra TNT Game 4

The antagonists of the now-infamous walkout game have dragged statistics into the conversation, and that makes me happy because, well, we at Patay Ang Butiki love us some statistics. Now, TNT coach Chot Reyes started this all off by stating the free throw disparity between the teams during Game 4, which was 14-5 in favor of Ginebra. And while I agree with Jaemark of Fire Quinito that free throw disparity doesn’t really tell us much, it’s a good starting point for discussion.

I find it interesting that Ginebra governor Robert Non said that Reyes was “only quoting the statistics that he wants to serve his and his team’s ends” when his own head coach in an attempt to respond to TNT’s allegations, does exactly the same thing. Jong Uichico cites that “Talk ’N Text is No.3 as the most fouling team with 27.17 per game while Barangay Ginebra is the least fouling team at 25.67 per game.”

But just as a disclaimer before everything else, we aren’t out to prove or disprove anything. Biased refereeing is very difficult to prove and as such, we aren’t even going to attempt it. What we will do is present some of the relevant statistics, explain what we can, and point out anything that looks out of place. It won’t prove anything, but it helps in understanding the context of things.

Look, a lot of the numbers being thrown around really doesn’t mean much. Take Uichico’s numbers, for one. He cites rankings – TNT at no. 3 and Ginebra at dead last – when it comes to fouls per game. But look at the quantities. There’s a difference of just less than two fouls per game between TNT and Ginebra. That’s not a very convincing difference. At best, you can say that Ginebra is expected to foul slightly less than TNT if they play in a series. But TNT isn’t complaining about being screwed over slightly. In Reyes’ mind, there’s a rather large disparity.

There are two things I wanted to find out from the numbers. First, was there a large difference in the TNT numbers and Ginebra numbers? And second, how did the quarterfinal series numbers compare to the regular season numbers and especially in games between TNT and Ginebra? That probably tells more about how games were called than looking at TNT and Ginebra’s games against the other PBA teams.

Also, you have to know that I prefer using advanced statistics than the regular ones. Important terms you have to know:

FP100: Fouls Per 100 Possessions. Basically just fouls per game adjusted for pace.
FTR: Free Throw Rate. This is what is used in the Four Factors, which measures a team’s ability to get to the free throw line. It’s basically FTA divided by FGA since it assumes one needs to take a shot to get free throws. And that’s what makes the penalty situation so valuable, it gives you points out of nothing.

Let’s get to the numbers.

I took my statistics from PBFantasy.com, so it may differ slightly from the figures Uichico cites, but they’re pretty damn close.

REGULAR SEASON
Ginebra:
27.11 FP100; 27.98 FP100 (Opp)
36.3% FTR; 34.2% FTR (Opp)

TNT
27.76 FP100; 25.09 FP100 (Opp)
33.0% FTR; 37.1% FTR (Opp)

So what do these numbers say? Basically, what Uichico was trying to point out. Ginebra is slightly above average at drawing fouls and getting to the line. And TNT is below average at that. But how far away are they from each other?

Now, assuming this is how TNT is called for almost 3 fouls more than the average team, and allows opponents to get to the line about 4 percentage points more, how would they perform against a slightly above average team like Ginebra? From a quick glance at the numbers, one would expect TNT to be called for about 4 or 5 more fouls against Ginebra, and maybe down 8 or 9 percentage points in FTR. And the regular season numbers seem to support that.

REGULAR SEASON (Ginebra vs TNT head-to-head; 2 games)
Ginebra
23.93 FP100
38.8% FTR

TNT
29.14 FP100
27.9% FTR

So yes. From the numbers, one would expect Ginebra to fare better than TNT when it comes to the fouls and free throw metrics, advanced or otherwise. And Ginebra did indeed prove to have the advantage in the regular season matchups. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

Now let’s check out the numbers from the games in the quarterfinal series that led to the walkout.

QUARTERFINALS (Games 1-3; 3 games)
Ginebra
26.89 FP100
54.0% FTR

TNT
36.64 FP100
30.1% FTR

So obviously, a lot more fouls being called here when compared to either the regular season schedule against all other 9 teams, or to the head-to-head games between TNT and Ginebra. Both teams were called for more fouls but TNT’s fouls get bumped up by 9 more fouls from their season norms, while Ginebra actually fouls less. When compared to the head-to-heads, which is a better comparison, Ginebra’s FP100 goes up by about 3 fouls while TNT’s go up by 6.

That’s a small red flag there. Just a teeny tiny one. But the problem is, those extra fouls in the game probably mean the difference between having fouls to give and penalty. And that shows up on the FTR.

Ginebra’s FTR goes up by a whopping 16 percentage points, while TNT’s goes up by about 3. Now that’s a bigger red flag right there. Something definitely out of the ordinary happened in the series.

Now I said in a previous post that I was already bugging about Game 3 – the way it was so easy for Ginebra to get to the line. So let’s look at Game 3 as well.

GAME 3 (1 game)
Ginebra
31.0 FP100
61.1% FTR

TNT
42.4 FP100
26.6% FTR

So for whatever reason, Game 3 was even more lopsided than the already lopsided quarterfinal series. Now let’s take a look at Game 4, which was the game TNT walked out on.

GAME 4 (1 game)
Ginebra
12.2 FP100
87.5% FTR

TNT
40.7 FP100
20.8% FTR

Wow. That 87.5% is insane. And the fact that Ginebra was on pace for just 12 fouls for 100 possessions when they averaged 27 in the eliminations? So it’s pretty safe to say that Ginebra got to the line A LOT, and was called for an incredibly small amount of fouls. You can’t say the refs were calling it tight on this one or there is no way one team would be on pace for 12 FP100. That’s half of Ginebra’s normal averages.

Now all these come with usual caveats about sample size, etc. Very likely, if TNT does not get into penalty in the next quarter, then that 87.5% of Ginebra will take a dip. But then, it doesn’t change the fact that these numbers are so far off from anything one can project.

But like I said, I’m not out to prove referee bias or anything like that. Stats can’t do that, sadly. But I can go over the numbers and point out things that look out of place.

And the walkout? Happened in an out-of-the-ordinary first quarter, preceded by an out-of-the-ordinary game, in an out-of-the-ordinary series. That much, we can see.

Now, someone has to look at it play-by-play if there’s bias to be proven. The stats can tell us there are red flags all over the place, but not why. They can be caused by a change in TNT strategy (that leads to more fouls), or Ginebra personnel (the return of Mark Caguioa and Jayjay Helterbrand from injury), or it could be referee bias. It could be anything.

And like I said, I don’t Iike that TNT walked out of the game. It’s disrespectful to the sport and to the fans, on some level. But if you have to understand why they felt they were handed the short end of the stick – well, here it is. The Game 4 disparity was worse than Game 3, which was worse than the rest of the series, which was worse than the past head-to-heads, which was worse than the regular series.

The two things I wanted to find out? Yes, there was, and rightfully should be, a difference between Ginebra’s and TNT’s numbers. They’re better at drawing fouls, period. But was there a difference with how the regular season and head-to-head matchups went as compared to the quarters? Yes, and I fully understand how that can frustrate TNT. Even as they won Games 1 and 2, they must have felt this was nothing like the past games they’ve had with Ginebra.

And like I said, you gotta feel for them.