Basketball is fast becoming a small man's game. The rule changes that have been implemented to make the game faster and more exciting, particularly the handcheck rule on the perimeter, benefit the smaller, faster and more skilled players rather than the strong, powerful guys who like to play in the post.
So, has the backcourt really become more important than the frontcourt?
Take a look at the production the teams get from their guards. To illustrate, I only took the top three backcourt players of teams, based partly on minutes they received and partly on their production. Here are the top teams:
ALA
Miller, Tenorio, Fonacier
41.3 pts, .445 FG%, .460 3P% 13.8 reb, 9.3 ast, 2.1 stl, 0 blk, 5.6 TO
TNT
Alapag, Cardona, Castro
47.1 pts, .507 FG%, .357 3P%, 13.5 reb, 12.9 ast, 2.6 stl, 0 blk, 9.4 TO
GIN
Helterbrand, Tubid, Caguioa
48.5 pts, .428 FG%, .305 3P%, 14.8 reb, 10.1 ast, 2.6 stl, 0.3 blk, 6.3 TO
Alaska, TNT and Ginebra were the top three teams before the games against Smart Gilas were made no-bearing. Alaska has an extremely productive backcourt with starters Willie Miller and LA Tenorio leading the team in scoring. Larry Fonacier comes in off the bench mainly to stretch the defense. He is fourth in the league in 3P%. You can see their rotation thrives on efficiency. They shoot very well, and especially so from beyond the arc. They also manage turnovers very well. TNT has one of the more impressive backcourts in the league. Mac Cardona is 2nd in the league in scoring with an 18.3 clip. Jimmy Alapag and Jason Castro make up the best rotation at the 1 in the entire league. They turn the ball over quite a bit, but that's because these guys handle the ball a lot. The TNT offense often flows through these guys. Ginebra, meanwhile, boasts of the explosive tandem of MVP Jayjay Helterbrand, Mark Caguioa (out for six weeks) and Ronald Tubid. Or as the fans like to call them, The Fast and the Furious (with Tubid being branded the Fearless just so it seems like a nice alliterative fit).
Those are some nice backcourt rotations. Let's take a look at the other end of the league this time:
COK
Cabagnot, Ross, Cruz
24.0 pts, .349 FG%, .277 3P%, 10.1 reb, 9.3 ast, 3.4 stl, 0.8 blk, 6.1 TO
ROS
Mercado, Arana, Arellano
27.3 pts, .419 FG%, .130 3P%, 7.6 reb, 5.5 ast, 3.8 stl, 0 blk, 8.1 TO
GIL
Barroca, Casio, Ababou
32.7 pts, .396 FG%, .306 3P% 8.4 reb, 12.1 ast, 2.0 stl, 0.3 blk, 5.7 TO
There seems to be a noticeable drop-off, particularly in scoring. The Coke guards Alex Cabagnot, Marvin Cruz and rookie Chris Ross look competitive with the top teams in terms of everything that isn't scoring. But they just don't score a lot of points, nor do they score with much efficiency. Rain or Shine players Sol Mercado, Ryan Arana and Marcy Arellano (I could have chosen TY Tang here, but he's got worse numbers than Marcy despite playing slightly more minutes) have a better percentage from the field but can't hit a three to save their lives. They get a bunch of steals but not a lot of assists. The Smart Gilas boys are actually pretty decent if you sub out Dylan Ababou for Chris Tiu but seeing as Tiu has only played one game, it's hard to tell if his stats are indicative of anything. Of course, something that isn't seen here is how bad the Gilas guards are on the defensive end.
Still, there really is quite a pronounced drop-off in guard production from the top three teams to the bottom three teams. Is it safe to say, then, that a good guard rotation is the key to winning in the PBA this season? Tough to say. We're only four games in (per team) and a lot of them are still shaking off the rust. San Miguel, in particular, is only just getting into its groove. Ginebra and Alaska are pretty lucky they got to play the Beermen before they had a chance to get some chemistry going.
But based on the early returns, it doesn't look like it'll hurt to load up your backcourt with some big guns.
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