NCAA Final Four: Time to Get Real

Well, one league has wrapped up its season, but college basketball is very much alive. After a very long season (10 teams make for plenty of games) of easy wins for the NCAA elite teams, the difficulty level is kicking up a notch. No more blowouts and gimmes for anyone now, it’s time for the Final Four.

Viewers already got a small taste of the action as the scheduling gods squeezed in many of the match-ups between the top 4 teams into the final playing dates of the eliminations. And if those games are any indication, here’s what to expect from the semifinal round: lots and lots of physicality.

San Beda Red Lions (1; twice to beat) vs Letran Knights (4)

Now this series would have been much more interesting pre-Rey Guevarra’s injury. The Knights have been bothered by depth concerns all season long, even with the high-flying Guevarra on the roster. However short their rotation is, one thing Letran won’t be short on is heart.

RJ Jazul is one of the better talents we’ve seen in the NCAA in a while. But after him, there’s a pretty significant drop in talent and experience. Jam Cortes is a nice option down low, if he can only keep himself out of foul trouble. Kevin Alas and his bag of dirty tricks will be on full display. For a freshman, he sure has veteran trickery down pat. John Foronda is a serviceable big man. He’s no star, but he can get the job done in the paint. Sometimes. Kirk del Rosario is tough. Junjun Alas is a wide body. And that’s pretty much it. I know it doesn’t seem like it, but I’m already being generous with my praise as it is.

The Red Lions, meanwhile, will be rolling out what is arguably the deepest bench in the NCAA. Sudan Daniel is head and shoulders above the competition, athletically-speaking, although he’s still raw in many aspects of the game. Garvo Lanete has turned himself into a pretty sweet scorer. Borgie Hermida is returning to his old dangerous form. And the other names I’ll roll out? You don’t have to know what they do well, but know that they will, indeed, do it well. Dave Marcelo. Jake Pascual. Bam Gamalinda. Rome dela Rosa. Jay-R Tecson. Anjo Caram. That’s a whole lot of depth right there. And ‘Baby Shaq’ JR Taganas isn’t even dressing of late.

(On a side note, can we stop calling him and every other chunky big man who was any good in high school ‘Baby Shaq’? His game is a lot more Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis than Shaq, anyway. I propose we start calling him ‘Big Baby’ Taganas instead.)

But if the second round meeting is any indication, this series will be no cakewalk. Oh, it may seem that way in the scoreboard. But San Beda is going to have to bleed to get their points, maybe literally, this time. The Knights’ championship aspirations may have faded a while back, but there’s plenty of motivation for this ragtag squad. Aside from the fact that these two schools have been rival teams for a while now, the two games they’ve had this season have been physical affairs. The first game almost turned into a brawl at the final buzzer while the second game had the Lanete stomping incident on Aloysius Taplah, which ended up ironically, into the ejection of Letran coach Louie Alas. Oh, and Guevarra’s injury happened in that same game. Yes, plenty of motivation for both teams.

Still, too much talent for the San Beda side. I’m guessing San Beda in one.

San Sebastian Golden Stags (2; twice-to-beat) vs JRU Heavy Bombers (3)

Now this is an interesting match-up. Both teams spent much of the season on top of the standings with San Beda, but one of them won’t even get past the Final Four. In one of those few years where there are three legitimate contenders for the championship, nobody wants to be remembered for coming in third.

Both teams are deep, physical, athletic and have size. Also, these two teams are the only teams who have beaten San Beda this season. That says something about the quality of both squads. In terms of head-to-head meetings, the Stags hold a 2-0 edge, although that second round meeting was pretty close. However, Baste has lost two in a row, and three of their last four games. Momentum, I guess, is on neither team’s side.

Some nice personnel match-ups, too. The series will feature two of the top scorers (and MVP candidates) in the NCAA in Jimbo Aquino and John Wilson. There’s the bizarro Marvin Hayes and Calvin Abueva match-up. Abueva plays like a younger version of Hayes (although, if the overage rumors are true, Hayes might actually be the younger version of Abueva). The battle of the beanpoles in Ian Sangalang and Etame Joe. Veteran guards in Mark Cagoco and Pamboy Raymundo. John Nchouto Njei against the laws of physics. JR Sena versus himself.

(Seriously, what’s up with Sena this year? Love the dude, but he’s got to start playing better if he wants to make the San Miguel Beermen roster after the NCAA season.)

Baste edged out of JRU in the second round despite having Gilbert Bulawan ejected and Abueva fouling out in the third quarter. However, that was a strange game in that the usually hot-shooting Heavy Bombers couldn’t hit a three-pointer to save their lives. Don’t expect for that to happen again, although the Stags defense might have something to say about that.

San Sebastian will be toting a twice-to-beat advantage, but will likely play that first game without Aquino, who was ejected from their playoff against San Beda. Ejections usually come with a matching one-game suspension. Without Aquino, the Stags are still dangerous as they showed in the San Beda game. Still, they’re a better team with Jimbo than without so this is going to hurt.

JRU’s success will probably depend on how quickly they get adjusted to Etame Joe’s presence. His only significant court time has come in the last two games, after spending most of the season sidelined by injury. Now’s not the best time for tinkering with lineups, but at least they’re adding talent, rather than subtracting it. The FEU Tamaraws tried the latter, and see how that turned out.

It all probably comes down to who shows up. In San Sebastian’s pair of losses to San Beda, main guns Aguino and Raymundo weren’t their usual selves. For the Bombers, Wilson also has a penchant for disappearing in big games.

Still, when push comes to shove, someone from the Stags always seems to get ejected (Bulawan against JRU, Jimbo against Beda). I don’t know if this Baste team is as prepared to handle adversity as well as they can hand out beatdowns to the rest of the NCAA. I’m going out on a limb by saying JRU in two. But much respect for the San Sebastian team. I would not be surprised if they prove me wrong.