TNT and Alaska are locked in a tight 2-2 deadlock in their best-of-seven semifinal series. But an interesting pattern has come up for TNT in this series. In the two wins that they have, the Tropang Texters have played short-handed. Mac Cardona skipped their Game 2 victory to get married, and Ryan Reyes missed Game 4 with a minor injury. In their two losses, they've been at full strength.
Now, Cardona and Reyes are both excellent players. Both are legitimate all-stars who back up their star quality with actual production (double-digit GmSc per 36; both in top 25 of the league). How could their team possibly be better without either of them on the floor? Well, as the saying goes, too many cooks spoil the broth. And that might actually be the case here.
The Texters have a backcourt rotation crowded with talent. They have two of the most efficient backcourt scorers in the PBA with Cardona and Jimmy Alapag. They had arguably the best backup point guard in the league in Jason Castro. And mid-conference they swung a deal that netted them Reyes (alongside the real prize of the deal, Kelly Williams).
Thing is, that makes for some tricky handling of minutes. The logical thing, of course, is to give minutes to the players that are playing well. But with a rotation as deep as this, that means players will get a shorter leash than usual. While other teams give their players the luxury of playing through mistakes, TNT can't.
In the 9 games that TNT played without Reyes in the lineup (the first 8 games before the trade and their final game of the elims, which Ryan sat out), Alapag, Cardona and Castro played bulk of the minutes at the 1 and 2. They combined to play 90.1 minutes per game of a possible 96 minutes (48 at the 1 and another 48 at the 2). This is how each fared (numbers adjusted per 36).
Alapag 12.2 pts, .569 TS%, 2.2 reb, 7.2 ast, .51 stl, .13 blk,1.6 TO, 1.5 fl, 10.6 GmScCardona 20.7 pts, .591 TS%, 4.3 reb, 4.2 ast, 1.2 stl, .59 blk,3.8 TO, 1.6 fl, 13.6 GmScCastro 13.7 pts, .653 TS%, 5.0 reb, 5.3 ast, .65 stl, .16 blk,3.2 TO, 3.4 fl, 10.2 GmSc
Those are pretty impressive numbers there. Plenty of points on some of the most effective shooting percentages in the league. Very high Game Score ratings as well. Those are number you would expect to belong to no less than the best backcourt in the league.
When they picked up Reyes, though, minutes had to be distributed among the four of them, meaning all three incumbents had dips in minutes. In the 9 games they played with Reyes active, Alapag, Cardona, Castro and Reyes combined to play 95.8 of 96 minutes (I'm assuming they played most at the 1 and 2 although it's possible they went with 3 of these guys together at certain points). That's a pretty even comparison to the amount of minutes the three played without Reyes. Here's how each guy fared, minute-adjusted.
Alapag 14.1 pts, .550 TS%, 2.6 reb, 8.8 ast, .67 stl, .13 blk,2.0 TO, 1.8 fl, 12.3 GmScCardona 17.4 pts, .463 TS%, 3.7 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.2 stl, .15 blk,4.1 TO, 3.2 fl, 7.0 GmScCastro 10.3 pts, .454 TS%, 6.1 reb, 7.0 ast, .44 stl, .0 blk,3.3 TO, 4.4 fl, 6.5 GmScReyes 14.8, .565 TS%, 6.8 reb, 5.1 ast, 1.5 stl, .0 blk,3.8 TO, 5.3 fl, 10.3 GmSc
You can see here that Alapag played slightly better with the arrival of Reyes, and Reyes himself played very well. But Cardona and Castro both saw their games, particularly their shooting percentages, fall off a cliff. This makes a huge difference because in the first split (without Reyes), you practically played a double-digit GmSc guy at the 1 and 2 for practically the entire game. With Reyes on board, you're giving a lot of minutes to Cardona and Castro, who aren't even near double-digits in GmSc anymore.
Let's compare the 1st split, the guard rotation before Reyes (let's call it the GRBR), to the 2nd split, the guard rotation after Reyes (the GRAR). And since the minutes each rotation played through 9 games are fairly similar, we can forget about adjusting for minutes. Here are the numbers per game:
GRBR 90.1 min, 39.6 pts, .598 TS%, 9.5 reb, 14.0 ast, 2.1 stl, .78 blk,7.3 TO, 5.2 fl, 29.2 GmScGRAR 95.8 min, 38.6 pts, .507 TS%, 12.1 reb, 16.4 ast, 2.5 stl, .22 blk,8.6 TO, 9.3 fl, 24.8 GmSc
In less minutes, the GRBR is scoring more points and at a much higher percentage than the GRAR. Less rebounds, assists and steals, but considering the minutes difference, it's actually pretty close. Add the fact that the GRBR turns the ball over less and fouls almost just half as much as the GRAR and, well, you can see how the pre-Reyes Texters can post a significantly higher GmSc, 29.2 against 24.8.
Basically, Cardona and Castro were playing at a much higher level before Reyes came along. That could be because of a poor fit with Reyes (who isn't the three-point shooter Alapag is). Or is it a result of the minutes shakeup? Some guys play better when they know they can play through some errors here and there. Maybe they're trying too hard to be in control and lost the regular rhythm they played with. In either case, it does indeed seem that Reyes' entry have hurt the Texters guards.
Now, this isn't an indictment of Reyes. I like his game a lot. It may well be Cardona and Castro's fault for not learning to play with their new teammate. And Reyes is young. In a few years, when Alapag starts to slip because of age, TNT will only be too happy they traded for Ryan. But maybe too many cooks really can spoil the broth. And sometimes, too much talent spoils perfectly good rotations.
